Themes / Group
Inactive · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Jul 14 · 18:03 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Gold Miners

THE TRADER READBroad relative move, confirmed beyond the cohort—but not by flow

9 of 9 measured SPY-adjusted paths align to the upside across 7.4 effective names. NEM, CDE, RGLD are also moving with filing-linked members. Capital-flow agreement is 20%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth7 up · 1 down+2.9% median path versus SPY
Capital-flow alignment20%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowCalmActivity score 11/100 · lift 0.8×
Evidence depth4 episodesLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

4 timed events · 09:35–15:55 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. 5-minute inferenceIAG registered the first material upside path

    +1.30% session path at the threshold · IAG

  2. 5-minute inferenceFNV registered a material upside path

    +0.67% session path at the threshold · FNV

  3. 5-minute inferenceAUGO registered a material upside path

    +2.45% session path at the threshold · AUGO

  4. 5-minute inferenceAEM registered a material upside path

    +1.08% session path at the threshold · AEM

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

SPY-adjusted 5m paths

Observed movement is broad across 7.4 effective names. AUGO represents 20.3% of absolute path energy; 9 of 9 members align with the up relative path.

ConstructionBroad20.3% from the largest path
Effective names7.4 / 9Movement diversity after concentration
Direction breadth9/9 alignedupside relative path · 0 counter-moving
Largest moverAUGO 20.3%36.0% from the top two paths
AUGO20.3%Aligned contributor · path +5.02% · basket +0.56pp
IAG15.7%Aligned contributor · path +3.89% · basket +0.43pp
AEM14.2%Aligned contributor · path +3.51% · basket +0.39pp
ASA12.1%Aligned contributor · path +2.99% · basket +0.33pp
NG11.9%Aligned contributor · path +2.95% · basket +0.33pp
WPM11.1%Aligned contributor · path +2.74% · basket +0.30pp
FNV5.9%Aligned contributor · path +1.45% · basket +0.16pp
IAUX4.5%Aligned contributor · path +1.11% · basket +0.12pp
PHYS4.5%Aligned contributor · path +1.11% · basket +0.12pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. IAG moved higher firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path +1.30%
  2. FNV registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +0.67%
  3. AUGO registered a material higher path15m after the first price move · path +2.45%
  4. AEM registered a material higher path15m after the first price move · path +1.08%
  5. ASA registered a material higher path15m after the first price move · path +1.00%
  6. NG registered a material higher path60m after the first price move · path +0.92%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

SPY-adjusted
Aug 25 · 09:35 ETMove visible 11:15 ETAug 25 · 15:55 ET
Group median +2.95%Strongest relative path AUGOWeakest relative path PHYS

Observed member paths adjusted against SPY. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

No high-confidence shared filing driver is available. The market relationship is observed, but the cause remains unexplained.

CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

3 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

NEMMoving with group

NG · text peer

CDEMoving with group

NG · text peer

RGLDMoving with group

IAUX · text peer

DCNot confirming

NG · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
ASAIAUXPHYSAUGOAEMFNVIAGWPMNG

5/9 active7 rising · 1 falling · 1 flat

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
ASAASA Gold and Precious Metals L
Most unusual · 100/100
-1.2%
Aligned price + flowActive in 25% of observed group sessions
IAUXi-80 Gold Corp.
Elevated · 95/100
+0.0%
Aligned path contributorActive in 0% of observed group sessions
PHYS"Sprott Physical Gold Trust"
Elevated · 73/100
+0.4%
Aligned path contributorActive in 25% of observed group sessions
AUGOAura Minerals Inc.
Elevated · 70/100
+3.5%
Aligned path contributorActive in 0% of observed group sessions
AEMAgnico Eagle Mines Limited
Elevated · 44/100
+2.9%
Aligned price + flowActive in 25% of observed group sessions
FNVFranco-Nevada Corporation
Quiet · 43/100
+0.6%
Watch / laggardActive in 25% of observed group sessions
IAGIamgold Corporation
Quiet · 37/100
+1.7%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
WPMWheaton Precious Metals Corp.
Quiet · 28/100
+2.2%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
NGNovaGold Resources Inc.
Quiet · 28/100
+4.5%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
ASAASA Gold and Precious Metals LMost unusual-1.2%25% of 4 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
IAUXi-80 Gold Corp.Participating+0.0%0% of 4 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
PHYS"Sprott Physical Gold Trust"Participating+0.4%25% of 4 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
AUGOAura Minerals Inc.Participating+3.5%0% of 4 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
AEMAgnico Eagle Mines LimitedParticipating+2.9%25% of 4 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
FNVFranco-Nevada CorporationQuiet / lagging+0.6%25% of 4 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
IAGIamgold CorporationQuiet / lagging+1.7%0% of 4 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
WPMWheaton Precious Metals Corp.Quiet / lagging+2.2%0% of 4 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
NGNovaGold Resources Inc.Quiet / lagging+4.5%0% of 4 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Live outcome ledger collecting

0/0 events completed

No completed point-in-time outcome is available yet. New live confirmations are now retained with their exact observation timestamp; statistics appear only after the corresponding candles complete.

Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 4 completed episodes across 4 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support68 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes4Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions4Completed session observations, not trades
2026-07-011 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-06-251 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-06-181 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-04-301 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
AEM25% · 1 episode
ASA25% · 1 episode
FNV25% · 1 episode
PHYS25% · 1 episode
AUGO0% · 0 episodes
IAG0% · 0 episodes
IAUX0% · 0 episodes
NG0% · 0 episodes
WPM0% · 0 episodes