Themes / Cluster
Active · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Sep 18 · 18:28 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Regional Banks

THE TRADER READPFS dominates an otherwise mixed group path

0 of 3 measured session-normalized paths align to the mixed across 1.9 effective names. CNOB, ONB, UBSI are also moving with filing-linked members. Capital-flow agreement is 19%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth1 up · 1 down+0.0% session-normalized median path
Capital-flow alignment19%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowHotActivity score 81/100 · lift 1.3×
Evidence depth1 episodeLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

1 timed event · 15:55–15:55 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. 5-minute inferencePFS registered the first material downside path

    -1.27% session path at the threshold · PFS

2 earlier filing context receipts

WED, AUG 5BKU filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

THU, AUG 6EBC filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

Session-normalized 5m paths

Observed movement is concentrated across 1.9 effective names. PFS represents 61.3% of absolute path energy; 0 of 3 members align without a clean common direction.

ConstructionConcentrated61.3% from the largest path
Effective names1.9 / 3Movement diversity after concentration
Direction breadthMixedmixed relative path · 0 counter-moving
Largest moverPFS 61.3%100.0% from the top two paths
PFS61.3%Dominant mover · path -0.37% · basket -0.12pp
EBC38.7%Dominant mover · path +0.23% · basket +0.08pp
BKU0.0%Flat / inactive path · path +0.00% · basket +0.00pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. PFS moved lower firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path -1.27%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

Session-normalized
Sep 17 · 15:55 ETMove visible 09:35 ETSep 18 · 15:55 ET
Group median +0.00%Strongest relative path EBCWeakest relative path PFS

Observed member paths normalized to the session. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

3/3 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across EBC, PFS.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

“The increase was driven by a $4.8 million increase in interest income and a $2.0 million decrease in interest expense.”

BKU 10-Q · 2026-08-06
demand / volume

“51 The following graph presents trends in the deposit mix and cost of deposits (in millions): Quarterly average cost of deposits 2.12% 2.18% Non-interest bearing as a % of total deposits 30.5% 28.8% Spot average APY of total deposits 2.09% 2.10% Non-interest bearing demand deposits declined by 2%, or $166 million during the quarter ended March 31, 2026, primarily due to seasonality.”

BKU 10-Q · 2026-05-07
credit / rates

“March 31, 2025 was primarily due to an increase in our total borrowings due to FHLB advances assumed in connection with our merger with HarborOne.”

EBC 10-Q · 2026-05-08
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

3 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

CNOBMoving with group

EBC · text peer

ONBMoving with group

BKU · text peer

UBSIMoving with group

BKU · text peer

OCFCNot confirming

PFS · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
PFSBKUEBC

3/3 active1 rising · 1 falling · 1 flat

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
PFSProvident Financial Services, Inc.
Elevated · 100/100
-0.4%
Dominant path moverActive in 100% of observed group sessions
BKUBankUnited, Inc.
Most unusual · 82/100
+0.0%
Flow confirmerActive in 100% of observed group sessions
EBCEastern Bankshares, Inc.
Elevated · 52/100
+0.2%
Dominant path moverActive in 100% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
PFSProvident Financial Services, Inc.Participating-0.4%100% of 1 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
BKUBankUnited, Inc.Most unusual+0.0%100% of 1 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
EBCEastern Bankshares, Inc.Participating+0.2%100% of 1 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Early observed follow-through

1/1 events completed
30 minutes-0.36%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.38% · MAE -2.02%
60 minutes-0.54%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.38% · MAE -2.02%
Session close-0.60%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.38% · MAE -2.02%
Next-session close-1.26%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.38% · MAE -2.02%
Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 1 completed episode across 1 active session; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support3 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes1Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions1Completed session observations, not trades
2026-09-181 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
BKU100% · 1 episode
EBC100% · 1 episode
PFS100% · 1 episode