Themes / Group
Active · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · 04:10 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Aerospace & Defense

THE TRADER READShared activity without a clean directional read

7 of 12 measured SPY-adjusted paths align to the downside across 5.5 effective names. Common-bar coverage spans 12 of 14 cohort members. Capital-flow agreement is 22%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth1 up · 13 down-0.4% median path versus SPY
Capital-flow alignment22%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowHotActivity score 75/100 · lift 1.3×
Evidence depth3 episodesLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

4 timed events · 09:55–15:55 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. 5-minute inferenceKRMN registered the first material downside path

    -3.60% session path at the threshold · KRMN

  2. 5-minute inferenceDRS registered a material downside path

    -0.63% session path at the threshold · DRS

  3. 5-minute inferenceAVAV registered a material downside path

    -1.52% session path at the threshold · AVAV

  4. 5-minute inferenceKTOS registered a material downside path

    -1.25% session path at the threshold · KTOS

2 earlier filing context receipts

SUN, JUN 28AVAV filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

WED, JUL 29DRS filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

SPY-adjusted 5m paths

Observed movement is balanced across 5.5 effective names. KRMN represents 34.1% of absolute path energy; 7 of 12 members align with the down relative path.

ConstructionBalanced34.1% from the largest path
Effective names5.5 / 1212 of 14 cohort members had common bars
Direction breadth7/12 aligneddownside relative path · 3 counter-moving
Largest moverKRMN 34.1%49.1% from the top two paths
KRMN34.1%Dominant mover · path -4.63% · basket -0.39pp
DRS15.0%Aligned contributor · path -2.04% · basket -0.17pp
AVAV14.2%Aligned contributor · path -1.93% · basket -0.16pp
LUNR10.5%Counter-move · path +1.42% · basket +0.12pp
LMT8.6%Aligned contributor · path -1.17% · basket -0.10pp
RTX4.0%Counter-move · path +0.54% · basket +0.04pp
KTOS3.8%Aligned contributor · path -0.52% · basket -0.04pp
RSG3.7%Aligned contributor · path -0.50% · basket -0.04pp
NOC2.8%Aligned contributor · path -0.38% · basket -0.03pp
HII1.9%Counter-move · path +0.26% · basket +0.02pp
GD1.3%Flat / inactive path · path -0.18% · basket -0.01pp
LHX0.2%Flat / inactive path · path -0.02% · basket -0.00pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. KRMN moved lower firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path -3.60%
  2. DRS registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.63%
  3. AVAV registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -1.52%
  4. KTOS registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -1.25%
  5. LUNR registered a material higher path30m after the first price move · path +0.99%
  6. LMT registered a material lower path30m after the first price move · path -0.36%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

SPY-adjusted
Aug 25 · 09:55 ETMove visible 10:30 ETAug 25 · 15:55 ET
Group median -0.44%Strongest relative path LUNRWeakest relative path KRMN

Observed member paths adjusted against SPY. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

14/14 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across AVAV, DRS, GD, HII, KRMN, KTOS, LHX, LMT, LUNR, RSG, RTX, WCN, WM.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

“The increase in interest expense was partially offset by an increase in interest income due to a combination of higher cash and investment balances and lower interest bearing debt balances. ​ Other Income, net.”

AVAV 10-K · 2026-06-29
demand / volume affecting revenue

“Legacy AV product revenue included in the AxS segment increased by $196.6 million driven by an increase in LMS, MacCready Works, and MUAS products due to increase in domestic and international demand, partially offset by a decrease in SUAS due to a decrease in international sales.”

AVAV 10-K · 2026-06-29
demand / volume

“Due to the long-lead time for obtaining certain product components, including in response to procurement issues caused by shortages in the supply chain for such components, and the manufacturing cycles, we need to make forecasts of demand and commit significant resources towards manufacturing our products.”

AVAV 10-K · 2026-06-29
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

0 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

ESENot confirming

DRS · text peer

SAICNot confirming

DRS · text peer

KBRNot confirming

KTOS · text peer

BWXTNot confirming

HII · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
AVAVWCNDRSGDKTOSHIIRSGKRMNNOCWMLUNRRTXLMTLHX

11/14 active1 rising · 13 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
AVAVAeroVironment, Inc.
Most unusual · 100/100
-0.6%
Aligned path contributorActive in 66.7% of observed group sessions
WCNWaste Connections, Inc.
Elevated · 78/100
-1.7%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 16.7% of observed group sessions
DRSLeonardo DRS, Inc.
Elevated · 44/100
-2.3%
Aligned path contributorActive in 100% of observed group sessions
GDGeneral Dynamics Corporation
Elevated · 37/100
-1.8%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 16.7% of observed group sessions
KTOSKratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.
Elevated · 37/100
-0.7%
Aligned path contributorActive in 66.7% of observed group sessions
HIIHuntington Ingalls Industries,
Elevated · 32/100
-1.1%
Counter-move / dispersionActive in 0% of observed group sessions
RSGRepublic Services, Inc.
Elevated · 30/100
-0.9%
Aligned path contributorActive in 0% of observed group sessions
KRMNKarman Holdings Inc.
Elevated · 24/100
-4.3%
Dominant path moverActive in 83.3% of observed group sessions
NOCNorthrop Grumman Corporation
Elevated · 24/100
-1.2%
Aligned price + flowActive in 0% of observed group sessions
WMWaste Management, Inc.
Elevated · 24/100
-1.9%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions
LUNRIntuitive Machines, Inc.
Elevated · 22/100
-0.4%
Counter-move / dispersionActive in 0% of observed group sessions
RTXRTX Corporation
Quiet · 22/100
+0.5%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
LMTLockheed Martin Corporation
Quiet · 20/100
-1.2%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
LHXL3Harris Technologies, Inc.
Quiet · 17/100
-0.3%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
AVAVAeroVironment, Inc.Most unusual-0.6%66.7% of 6 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
WCNWaste Connections, Inc.Participating-1.7%16.7% of 6 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
DRSLeonardo DRS, Inc.Participating-2.3%100% of 6 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
GDGeneral Dynamics CorporationParticipating-1.8%16.7% of 6 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
KTOSKratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.Participating-0.7%66.7% of 6 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
HIIHuntington Ingalls Industries,Participating-1.1%0% of 6 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
RSGRepublic Services, Inc.Participating-0.9%0% of 6 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
KRMNKarman Holdings Inc.Participating-4.3%83.3% of 6 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
NOCNorthrop Grumman CorporationParticipating-1.2%0% of 6 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
WMWaste Management, Inc.Participating-1.9%0% of 6 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
LUNRIntuitive Machines, Inc.Participating-0.4%0% of 6 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
RTXRTX CorporationQuiet / lagging+0.5%0% of 6 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
LMTLockheed Martin CorporationQuiet / lagging-1.2%0% of 6 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
LHXL3Harris Technologies, Inc.Quiet / lagging-0.3%0% of 6 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Early observed follow-through

2/2 events completed
30 minutes-0.22%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.23% · MAE -2.14%
60 minutes-0.46%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.23% · MAE -2.14%
Session close-0.72%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.23% · MAE -2.14%
Next-session close-2.14%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.23% · MAE -2.14%
Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 3 completed episodes across 6 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support16 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes3Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions6Completed session observations, not trades
2026-08-19 → 2026-08-243 active sessions11.1% composition consistency through the episode
2026-08-141 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-07-31 → 2026-08-032 active sessions66.7% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
DRS100% · 3 episodes
KRMN83.3% · 3 episodes
AVAV66.7% · 3 episodes
KTOS66.7% · 3 episodes
GD16.7% · 1 episode
WCN16.7% · 1 episode
HII0% · 0 episodes
LHX0% · 0 episodes
LMT0% · 0 episodes
LUNR0% · 0 episodes
NOC0% · 0 episodes
RSG0% · 0 episodes
RTX0% · 0 episodes
WM0% · 0 episodes