Themes / Group
Active · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Aug 20 · 16:27 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Regional Banks

THE TRADER READBroad relative move, confirmed beyond the cohort—but not by flow

0 of 12 measured SPY-adjusted paths align to the mixed across 7.6 effective names. WFC, CBSH, FITB are also moving with filing-linked members. Capital-flow agreement is 10%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth4 up · 7 down-0.1% median path versus SPY
Capital-flow alignment10%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowNormalActivity score 46/100 · lift 1.0×
Evidence depth2 episodesLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

4 timed events · 10:10–15:55 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. 5-minute inferenceFIBK registered the first material downside path

    -0.41% session path at the threshold · FIBK

  2. 5-minute inferenceGBCI registered a material upside path

    +0.74% session path at the threshold · GBCI

  3. 5-minute inferenceSFNC registered a material downside path

    -0.74% session path at the threshold · SFNC

  4. 5-minute inferenceFHB registered a material downside path

    -0.99% session path at the threshold · FHB

2 earlier filing context receipts

WED, FEB 11ASB filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

TUE, MAY 5SFNC filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

SPY-adjusted 5m paths

Observed movement is broad across 7.6 effective names. GBCI represents 25.9% of absolute path energy; 0 of 12 members align without a clean common direction.

ConstructionBroad25.9% from the largest path
Effective names7.6 / 12Movement diversity after concentration
Direction breadthMixedmixed relative path · 0 counter-moving
Largest moverGBCI 25.9%38.5% from the top two paths
GBCI25.9%Dominant mover · path +1.47% · basket +0.12pp
SFNC12.6%Independent direction · path -0.71% · basket -0.06pp
FHB10.9%Independent direction · path -0.62% · basket -0.05pp
TCBI9.8%Independent direction · path +0.55% · basket +0.05pp
SBCF9.7%Independent direction · path -0.55% · basket -0.05pp
FIBK7.1%Independent direction · path -0.40% · basket -0.03pp
KEY6.7%Independent direction · path +0.38% · basket +0.03pp
PNC6.4%Independent direction · path +0.36% · basket +0.03pp
USB3.6%Independent direction · path +0.20% · basket +0.02pp
ZION3.5%Independent direction · path -0.20% · basket -0.02pp
ASB2.8%Independent direction · path -0.16% · basket -0.01pp
ONB1.1%Flat / inactive path · path -0.06% · basket -0.01pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. FIBK moved lower firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path -0.41%
  2. GBCI registered a material higher path175m after the first price move · path +0.74%
  3. SFNC registered a material lower path175m after the first price move · path -0.74%
  4. FHB registered a material lower path175m after the first price move · path -0.99%
  5. PNC registered a material higher path175m after the first price move · path +0.51%
  6. ZION registered a material lower path175m after the first price move · path -0.37%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

SPY-adjusted
Aug 25 · 10:10 ET14:40 ETAug 25 · 15:55 ET
Group median -0.11%Strongest relative path GBCIWeakest relative path SFNC

Observed member paths adjusted against SPY. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

12/12 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across FHB, FIBK, ONB, PNC, SBCF, SFNC, TCBI, USB, ZION.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

“The decrease due to rates was partially offset by a $2.9 million increase in interest expense attributable to deposit volume over the period.”

SFNC 10-Q · 2026-05-06
credit / rates

“These changes were primarily due to a reduction of higher rate, non-relationship wholesale and public fund deposits, as well as higher rate other borrowings, as part of the balance sheet repositioning.”

SFNC 10-Q · 2025-11-06
demand / volume

“Average deposits of $37.8 billion increased $3.3 billion, or 9%, from the first six months of 2025, primarily due to the American National acquisition, as well as organic growth in noninterest bearing demand, savings and other time deposits, partially offset by a decrease in brokered CDs.”

ASB 10-Q · 2026-08-04
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

4 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

WFCMoving with group

ASB · text peer

CBSHMoving with group

ONB · text peer

FITBMoving with group

ASB · text peer

FLGMoving with group

ASB · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
PNCUSBASBSFNCTCBIGBCISBCFONBKEYZIONFHBFIBK

10/12 active4 rising · 8 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
PNCThe PNC Financial Services Group, Inc.
Elevated · 100/100
+0.2%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 58.3% of observed group sessions
USBU.S. Bancorp
Elevated · 70/100
-0.0%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 33.3% of observed group sessions
ASBAssociated Banc-Corp
Elevated · 64/100
-0.3%
Flow divergenceActive in 58.3% of observed group sessions
SFNCSimmons First National Corporation
Most unusual · 59/100
-1.2%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 50% of observed group sessions
TCBITexas Capital Bancshares, Inc.
Elevated · 57/100
+0.7%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 33.3% of observed group sessions
GBCIGlacier Bancorp, Inc.
Elevated · 52/100
+1.2%
Dominant path moverActive in 25% of observed group sessions
SBCFSeacoast Banking Corporation of Florida
Elevated · 47/100
-1.0%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 50% of observed group sessions
ONBOld National Bancorp
Elevated · 44/100
-0.5%
Flow divergenceActive in 16.7% of observed group sessions
KEYKeyCorp
Elevated · 42/100
+0.1%
Flow divergenceActive in 33.3% of observed group sessions
ZIONZions Bancorporation, National Association
Elevated · 40/100
-0.4%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 8.3% of observed group sessions
FHBFirst Hawaiian, Inc.
Elevated · 38/100
-1.0%
Flow divergenceActive in 16.7% of observed group sessions
FIBKFirst Interstate BancSystem, Inc.
Quiet · 36/100
-0.5%
Watch / laggardActive in 16.7% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
PNCThe PNC Financial Services Group, Inc.Participating+0.2%58.3% of 12 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
USBU.S. BancorpParticipating-0.0%33.3% of 12 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
ASBAssociated Banc-CorpParticipating-0.3%58.3% of 12 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
SFNCSimmons First National CorporationMost unusual-1.2%50% of 12 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
TCBITexas Capital Bancshares, Inc.Participating+0.7%33.3% of 12 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
GBCIGlacier Bancorp, Inc.Participating+1.2%25% of 12 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
SBCFSeacoast Banking Corporation of FloridaParticipating-1.0%50% of 12 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
ONBOld National BancorpParticipating-0.5%16.7% of 12 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
KEYKeyCorpParticipating+0.1%33.3% of 12 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
ZIONZions Bancorporation, National AssociationParticipating-0.4%8.3% of 12 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
FHBFirst Hawaiian, Inc.Participating-1.0%16.7% of 12 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
FIBKFirst Interstate BancSystem, Inc.Quiet / lagging-0.5%16.7% of 12 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Observed follow-through

9/9 events completed
30 minutes-0.03%43% continuation · n=7Median MFE +0.43% · MAE -0.21%
60 minutes+0.06%57% continuation · n=7Median MFE +0.43% · MAE -0.21%
Session close+0.20%67% continuation · n=6Median MFE +0.32% · MAE -0.30%
Next-session close+0.10%71% continuation · n=7Median MFE +0.43% · MAE -0.21%
Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 2 completed episodes across 12 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support17 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes2Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions12Completed session observations, not trades
2026-07-30 → 2026-08-1911 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-07-231 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
ASB58.3% · 1 episode
PNC58.3% · 1 episode
SBCF50% · 1 episode
SFNC50% · 1 episode
KEY33.3% · 1 episode
TCBI33.3% · 1 episode
USB33.3% · 1 episode
GBCI25% · 2 episodes
FHB16.7% · 2 episodes
FIBK16.7% · 1 episode
ONB16.7% · 1 episode
ZION8.3% · 1 episode