Themes / Group
Inactive · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Aug 20 · 16:27 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Trucking and Logistics

THE TRADER READRecurring relationship, inactive in the latest snapshot

12 of 12 measured SPY-adjusted paths align to the downside across 9.3 effective names. Common-bar coverage spans 12 of 18 cohort members. Capital-flow agreement is 20%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth8 up · 10 down-0.3% median path versus SPY
Capital-flow alignment20%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowCalmActivity score 31/100 · lift 0.8×
Evidence depth3 episodesLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

4 timed events · 15:10–15:55 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. 5-minute inferenceARMK registered the first material downside path

    -0.52% session path at the threshold · ARMK

  2. 5-minute inferenceBAX registered a material downside path

    -0.38% session path at the threshold · BAX

  3. 5-minute inferenceKNX registered a material downside path

    -0.54% session path at the threshold · KNX

  4. 5-minute inferencePHIN registered a material downside path

    -0.38% session path at the threshold · PHIN

2 earlier filing context receipts

MON, FEB 23JBHT filing documented shared operating contextrestructuring affecting expense · date precision only

THU, JUL 16ALV filing documented shared operating contextrestructuring affecting expense · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

SPY-adjusted 5m paths

Observed movement is broad across 9.3 effective names. ARMK represents 17.2% of absolute path energy; 12 of 12 members align with the down relative path.

ConstructionBroad17.2% from the largest path
Effective names9.3 / 1212 of 18 cohort members had common bars
Direction breadth12/12 aligneddownside relative path · 0 counter-moving
Largest moverARMK 17.2%33.3% from the top two paths
ARMK17.2%Aligned contributor · path -0.57% · basket -0.05pp
KNX16.1%Aligned contributor · path -0.54% · basket -0.04pp
PHIN11.4%Aligned contributor · path -0.38% · basket -0.03pp
JBHT9.7%Aligned contributor · path -0.32% · basket -0.03pp
ALV9.5%Aligned contributor · path -0.32% · basket -0.03pp
BAX8.9%Aligned contributor · path -0.30% · basket -0.03pp
HAS6.6%Aligned contributor · path -0.22% · basket -0.02pp
R5.3%Aligned contributor · path -0.18% · basket -0.01pp
SAIA4.9%Aligned contributor · path -0.17% · basket -0.01pp
LEA3.7%Aligned contributor · path -0.12% · basket -0.01pp
GXO3.6%Aligned contributor · path -0.12% · basket -0.01pp
ODFL3.1%Aligned contributor · path -0.10% · basket -0.01pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. ARMK moved lower firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path -0.52%
  2. BAX registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.38%
  3. KNX registered a material lower path5m after the first price move · path -0.54%
  4. PHIN registered a material lower path5m after the first price move · path -0.38%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

SPY-adjusted
Aug 25 · 15:10 ET15:50 ETAug 25 · 15:55 ET
Group median -0.26%Strongest relative path ODFLWeakest relative path ARMK

Observed member paths adjusted against SPY. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

17/18 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across ALV, ARMK, BAX, GXO, HAS, JBHT, KNX, ODFL, PHIN, SAIA, SBUX, UPS, VC, XPO.

restructuring affecting expense

“Actual amounts of amortization expense may differ from estimated amounts due to additional intangible asset acquisitions, impairment or accelerated amortization of intangible assets, and other events.”

JBHT 10-K · 2026-02-24
credit / rates affecting interest expense

“Net interest expense decreased 21.2% in 2026 due to a decrease in our average debt balance, partially offset by an increase in effective interest rates compared to second quarter 2025.”

JBHT 10-Q · 2026-07-24
restructuring

“Acquisitions and business combinations are accompanied by a number of inherent risks, including, without limitation, the difficulty of integrating acquired companies and operations; potential disruption of our ongoing businesses and distraction of our management or the management of acquired companies; difficulties in maintaining controls, procedures and policies; potential impairment of relationships with employees and partners as a result of any integration of new management personnel; potential inability to manage an increased number of locations and employees; failure to realize expected efficiencies, synergies and cost savings; or the effect of any government regulations which relate to the businesses acquired.”

JBHT 10-K · 2026-02-24
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

0 outsiders confirming
QRVO → BNDInverse historical lead/lag · strength -0.18
QRVO → EMBInverse historical lead/lag · strength -0.18

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

MRTNNot confirming

KNX · text peer

FWRDNot confirming

KNX · text peer

WERNNot confirming

KNX · text peer

CHRWNot confirming

KNX · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
JBHTSNDRXPOVCGXOALVSBUXKNXSAIAHASODFLLEAPHINTFIIARMKUPSRBAX

11/18 active8 rising · 10 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
JBHTJ.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.
Most unusual · 100/100
+0.8%
Aligned path contributorActive in 0% of observed group sessions
SNDRSchneider National, Inc.
Elevated · 92/100
-0.4%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 20% of observed group sessions
XPOXPO, Inc.
Elevated · 86/100
-0.1%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 33.3% of observed group sessions
VCVisteon Corporation Common Stock
Elevated · 77/100
+1.8%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 13.3% of observed group sessions
GXOGXO Logistics, Inc.
Elevated · 68/100
+0.9%
Aligned path contributorActive in 0% of observed group sessions
ALVAutoliv, Inc.
Elevated · 61/100
+0.6%
Aligned path contributorActive in 0% of observed group sessions
SBUXStarbucks Corporation
Elevated · 61/100
-1.6%
Flow divergenceActive in 0% of observed group sessions
KNXKnight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.
Elevated · 60/100
-0.9%
Aligned price + flowActive in 0% of observed group sessions
SAIASaia, Inc.
Elevated · 57/100
-1.7%
Aligned path contributorActive in 13.3% of observed group sessions
HASHasbro, Inc.
Elevated · 55/100
+1.4%
Aligned path contributorActive in 0% of observed group sessions
ODFLOld Dominion Freight Line, Inc.
Elevated · 53/100
-1.6%
Aligned price + flowActive in 13.3% of observed group sessions
LEALear Corporation
Quiet · 47/100
+0.6%
Watch / laggardActive in 13.3% of observed group sessions
PHINPHINIA Inc.
Quiet · 46/100
-0.5%
Watch / laggardActive in 13.3% of observed group sessions
TFIITFI International Inc.
Quiet · 45/100
-1.0%
Watch / laggardActive in 13.3% of observed group sessions
ARMKAramark
Quiet · 45/100
-0.3%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
UPSUnited Parcel Service, Inc.
Quiet · 44/100
+2.4%
Watch / laggardActive in 20% of observed group sessions
RRyder System, Inc.
Quiet · 38/100
+0.4%
Watch / laggardActive in 20% of observed group sessions
BAXBaxter International Inc.
Quiet · 33/100
-0.8%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
JBHTJ.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.Most unusual+0.8%0% of 15 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
SNDRSchneider National, Inc.Participating-0.4%20% of 15 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
XPOXPO, Inc.Participating-0.1%33.3% of 15 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
VCVisteon Corporation Common StockParticipating+1.8%13.3% of 15 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
GXOGXO Logistics, Inc.Participating+0.9%0% of 15 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
ALVAutoliv, Inc.Participating+0.6%0% of 15 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
SBUXStarbucks CorporationParticipating-1.6%0% of 15 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
KNXKnight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.Participating-0.9%0% of 15 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
SAIASaia, Inc.Participating-1.7%13.3% of 15 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
HASHasbro, Inc.Participating+1.4%0% of 15 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
ODFLOld Dominion Freight Line, Inc.Participating-1.6%13.3% of 15 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
LEALear CorporationQuiet / lagging+0.6%13.3% of 15 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
PHINPHINIA Inc.Quiet / lagging-0.5%13.3% of 15 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
TFIITFI International Inc.Quiet / lagging-1.0%13.3% of 15 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
ARMKAramarkQuiet / lagging-0.3%0% of 15 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
UPSUnited Parcel Service, Inc.Quiet / lagging+2.4%20% of 15 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
RRyder System, Inc.Quiet / lagging+0.4%20% of 15 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
BAXBaxter International Inc.Quiet / lagging-0.8%0% of 15 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Observed follow-through

6/6 events completed
30 minutes-0.25%25% continuation · n=4Median MFE +0.45% · MAE -0.91%
60 minutes-0.38%25% continuation · n=4Median MFE +0.45% · MAE -0.91%
Session close-0.30%33% continuation · n=3Median MFE +0.07% · MAE -0.79%
Next-session close-0.56%25% continuation · n=4Median MFE +0.45% · MAE -0.91%
Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 3 completed episodes across 15 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support21 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes3Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions15Completed session observations, not trades
2026-08-191 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-07-24 → 2026-08-1213 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-07-171 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
XPO33.3% · 2 episodes
R20% · 3 episodes
SNDR20% · 1 episode
UPS20% · 2 episodes
LEA13.3% · 1 episode
ODFL13.3% · 2 episodes
PHIN13.3% · 1 episode
SAIA13.3% · 1 episode
TFII13.3% · 2 episodes
VC13.3% · 2 episodes
ALV0% · 0 episodes
ARMK0% · 0 episodes
BAX0% · 0 episodes
GXO0% · 0 episodes
HAS0% · 0 episodes
JBHT0% · 0 episodes
KNX0% · 0 episodes
SBUX0% · 0 episodes