Themes / Group
Active · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Aug 20 · 16:27 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Regional Banks

THE TRADER READShared activity without a clean directional read

4 of 6 measured SPY-adjusted paths align to the downside across 4.7 effective names. ASB, WFC are also moving with filing-linked members. Capital-flow agreement is 10%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth0 up · 5 down-0.3% median path versus SPY
Capital-flow alignment10%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowHotActivity score 65/100 · lift 1.3×
Evidence depth1 episodeLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

5 timed events · 09:40–15:55 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. Retained observationGroup activity qualified live

    83% breadth · Hot activity

  2. 5-minute inferenceBOKF registered the first material downside path

    -0.62% session path at the threshold · BOKF

  3. 5-minute inferenceTFC registered a material downside path

    -0.45% session path at the threshold · TFC

  4. 5-minute inferenceSSB registered a material downside path

    -0.40% session path at the threshold · SSB

  5. 5-minute inferencePNFP registered a material downside path

    -0.57% session path at the threshold · PNFP

2 earlier filing context receipts

SUN, OCT 26MTB filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

TUE, FEB 17BOKF filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

SPY-adjusted 5m paths

Observed movement is balanced across 4.7 effective names. BOKF represents 34.1% of absolute path energy; 4 of 6 members align with the down relative path.

ConstructionBalanced34.1% from the largest path
Effective names4.7 / 6Movement diversity after concentration
Direction breadth4/6 aligneddownside relative path · 2 counter-moving
Largest moverBOKF 34.1%53.3% from the top two paths
BOKF34.1%Dominant mover · path -1.00% · basket -0.17pp
TFC19.2%Aligned contributor · path -0.56% · basket -0.09pp
RF16.4%Counter-move · path +0.48% · basket +0.08pp
PNFP12.9%Aligned contributor · path -0.38% · basket -0.06pp
MTB10.3%Counter-move · path +0.30% · basket +0.05pp
SSB7.2%Aligned contributor · path -0.21% · basket -0.04pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. BOKF moved lower firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path -0.62%
  2. TFC registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.45%
  3. SSB registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.40%
  4. PNFP registered a material lower path200m after the first price move · path -0.57%
  5. MTB registered a material higher path200m after the first price move · path +0.36%
  6. RF registered a material higher path225m after the first price move · path +0.45%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

SPY-adjusted
Aug 25 · 09:40 ETMove visible 11:30 ETAug 25 · 15:55 ET
Group median -0.29%Strongest relative path RFWeakest relative path BOKF

Observed member paths adjusted against SPY. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

6/6 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across BOKF, MTB, PNFP, RF, SSB, TFC.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

“This difference could result in an increase in interest expense relative to interest revenue, which would reduce the Company's net interest income.”

BOKF 10-K · 2026-02-18
credit / rates

“Net interest income increased $36.2 million from growth in average assets and interest-bearing deposit balances, partially offset by lower wholesale borrowings.”

BOKF 10-K · 2026-02-18
restructuring

“Due to the change in composition of the Company's reporting units, management performed a quantitative assessment of goodwill for impairment immediately before and after the change as of July 1, 2025.”

BOKF 10-K · 2026-02-18
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

2 outsiders confirming
ASB → UVXYPositive historical lead/lag · strength 0.32
ASB → SLVInverse historical lead/lag · strength -0.28

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

ASBMoving with group

BOKF · text peer

WFCMoving with group

BOKF · text peer

BHRBNot confirming

SSB · text peer

NBHCNot confirming

SSB · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
BOKFRFPNFPTFCMTBSSB

5/6 active0 rising · 5 falling · 1 flat

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
BOKFBOK Financial Corporation
Most unusual · 100/100
-1.3%
Dominant path moverActive in 100% of observed group sessions
RFRegions Financial Corporation
Elevated · 87/100
+0.0%
Counter-move / dispersionActive in 100% of observed group sessions
PNFPPinnacle Financial Partners, Inc.
Elevated · 86/100
-0.6%
Aligned price + flowActive in 50% of observed group sessions
TFCTruist Financial Corporation
Elevated · 83/100
-1.0%
Aligned path contributorActive in 50% of observed group sessions
MTBM&T Bank Corporation
Elevated · 65/100
-0.5%
Counter-move / dispersionActive in 100% of observed group sessions
SSBSouthState Bank Corporation
Elevated · 46/100
-0.6%
Aligned price + flowActive in 100% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
BOKFBOK Financial CorporationMost unusual-1.3%100% of 2 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
RFRegions Financial CorporationParticipating+0.0%100% of 2 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
PNFPPinnacle Financial Partners, Inc.Participating-0.6%50% of 2 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
TFCTruist Financial CorporationParticipating-1.0%50% of 2 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
MTBM&T Bank CorporationParticipating-0.5%100% of 2 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
SSBSouthState Bank CorporationParticipating-0.6%100% of 2 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Early observed follow-through

2/2 events completed
30 minutes-0.53%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.08% · MAE -1.27%
60 minutes-0.57%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.08% · MAE -1.27%
Session close-1.18%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.08% · MAE -1.27%
Next-session close-0.38%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.08% · MAE -1.27%
Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

One continuous episode spans 2 active sessions; the independent episode sample remains low—context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support1 dayHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes1Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions2Completed session observations, not trades
2026-08-19 → 2026-08-202 active sessions66.7% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
BOKF100% · 1 episode
MTB100% · 1 episode
RF100% · 1 episode
SSB100% · 1 episode
PNFP50% · 1 episode
TFC50% · 1 episode