Themes / Group
Active · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Aug 20 · 16:27 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Regional Banks

THE TRADER READShared activity without a clean directional read

Price direction is split across 22 measured members. Capital-flow agreement is 17%, so the basket is not yet clean.

Price breadth2 up · 20 downRelative median unavailable
Capital-flow alignment17%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowHotActivity score 82/100 · lift 1.3×
Evidence depth4 episodesLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

1 timed event
TIMING READA causal timing read is unavailable because no material member price onset could be timestamped.
  1. Retained observationGroup activity qualified live

    82% breadth · Hot activity

2 earlier filing context receipts

WED, FEB 25ABCB filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

THU, FEB 26UBSI filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
Price sequence unavailableA timestamped price sequence is unavailable.
RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

Session-normalized

Observed intraday paths are not available for this group yet.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

22/22 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across BOH, CBU, CVBF, FFIN, IBOC, PFS, TRMK, UBSI, UCB.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

“Subsequent adjustments due to changes in the fair value of a derivative that qualifies as a fair value hedge are offset in current period earnings either in interest income or interest expense depending on the nature of the hedged financial instrument.”

UBSI 10-K · 2026-02-27
demand / volume

“Since interest rates, loan demand and deposit levels are impacted by inflation, the resulting changes in the interest-sensitive assets and liabilities are included in net interest income.”

UBSI 10-K · 2026-02-27
credit / rates

“During the year of 2024, net cash of $323.64 million was used in financing activities due primarily to net repayments of $1.25 billion from long-term FHLB borrowings partially offset by an increase of $1.14 billion in deposits.”

UBSI 10-K · 2026-02-27
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

0 outsiders confirming
ABBV → UVXYPositive historical lead/lag · strength 0.26
ABBV → HYGInverse historical lead/lag · strength -0.15

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

SFBSNot confirming

HWC · text peer

HOMBNot confirming

HWC · text peer

HAFCNot confirming

RNST · text peer

BFCNot confirming

WAFD · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
UBSIINDBCATYHWCIBOCBOHWAFDFBNCBANFABCBFULTUCBTRMKTFSLCBUWSFSRNSTBBTFFINFBKCVBFPFS

21/22 active2 rising · 20 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
UBSIUnited Bankshares, Inc.
Most unusual · 100/100
-0.8%
Flow divergenceActive in 29.3% of observed group sessions
INDBIndependent Bank Corp.
Elevated · 74/100
-0.3%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 14.6% of observed group sessions
CATYCathay General Bancorp
Elevated · 71/100
-0.6%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 14.6% of observed group sessions
HWCHancock Whitney Corporation
Elevated · 69/100
-0.2%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 26.8% of observed group sessions
IBOCInternational Bancshares Corporation
Elevated · 61/100
-1.0%
Flow divergenceActive in 9.8% of observed group sessions
BOHBank of Hawaii Corporation
Elevated · 61/100
-0.9%
Flow divergenceActive in 12.2% of observed group sessions
WAFDWaFd, Inc.
Elevated · 59/100
-0.3%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 17.1% of observed group sessions
FBNCFirst Bancorp
Elevated · 55/100
-1.9%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 14.6% of observed group sessions
BANFBancFirst Corporation
Elevated · 54/100
-1.4%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 14.6% of observed group sessions
ABCBAmeris Bancorp
Elevated · 54/100
-0.3%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 9.8% of observed group sessions
FULTFulton Financial Corporation
Elevated · 52/100
+0.3%
Flow divergenceActive in 12.2% of observed group sessions
UCBUnited Community Banks, Inc.
Elevated · 50/100
-0.7%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 12.2% of observed group sessions
TRMKTrustmark Corporation
Elevated · 49/100
-0.6%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 4.9% of observed group sessions
TFSLTFS Financial Corporation
Elevated · 47/100
+0.8%
Flow divergenceActive in 7.3% of observed group sessions
CBUCommunity Financial System, Inc.
Elevated · 47/100
-0.2%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 7.3% of observed group sessions
WSFSWSFS Financial Corporation
Elevated · 43/100
-1.1%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 22% of observed group sessions
RNSTRenasant Corporation
Elevated · 41/100
-1.1%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 19.5% of observed group sessions
BBTBeacon Financial Corporation
Elevated · 39/100
-0.6%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 17.1% of observed group sessions
FFINFirst Financial Bankshares, Inc.
Elevated · 36/100
-0.8%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 14.6% of observed group sessions
FBKFB Financial Corporation
Elevated · 35/100
-1.7%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 14.6% of observed group sessions
CVBFCVB Financial Corp.
Elevated · 34/100
-0.3%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 2.4% of observed group sessions
PFSProvident Financial Services, I
Quiet · 31/100
-0.5%
Watch / laggardActive in 7.3% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
UBSIUnited Bankshares, Inc.Most unusual-0.8%29.3% of 41 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
INDBIndependent Bank Corp.Participating-0.3%14.6% of 41 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
CATYCathay General BancorpParticipating-0.6%14.6% of 41 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
HWCHancock Whitney CorporationParticipating-0.2%26.8% of 41 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
IBOCInternational Bancshares CorporationParticipating-1.0%9.8% of 41 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
BOHBank of Hawaii CorporationParticipating-0.9%12.2% of 41 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
WAFDWaFd, Inc.Participating-0.3%17.1% of 41 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
FBNCFirst BancorpParticipating-1.9%14.6% of 41 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
BANFBancFirst CorporationParticipating-1.4%14.6% of 41 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
ABCBAmeris BancorpParticipating-0.3%9.8% of 41 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
FULTFulton Financial CorporationParticipating+0.3%12.2% of 41 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
UCBUnited Community Banks, Inc.Participating-0.7%12.2% of 41 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
TRMKTrustmark CorporationParticipating-0.6%4.9% of 41 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
TFSLTFS Financial CorporationParticipating+0.8%7.3% of 41 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
CBUCommunity Financial System, Inc.Participating-0.2%7.3% of 41 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
WSFSWSFS Financial CorporationParticipating-1.1%22% of 41 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
RNSTRenasant CorporationParticipating-1.1%19.5% of 41 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
BBTBeacon Financial CorporationParticipating-0.6%17.1% of 41 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
FFINFirst Financial Bankshares, Inc.Participating-0.8%14.6% of 41 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
FBKFB Financial CorporationParticipating-1.7%14.6% of 41 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
CVBFCVB Financial Corp.Participating-0.3%2.4% of 41 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
PFSProvident Financial Services, IQuiet / lagging-0.5%7.3% of 41 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Observed follow-through

9/9 events completed
30 minutes+0.08%57% continuation · n=7Median MFE +0.68% · MAE -0.21%
60 minutes+0.24%57% continuation · n=7Median MFE +0.68% · MAE -0.21%
Session close+0.08%50% continuation · n=6Median MFE +0.53% · MAE -0.26%
Next-session close+0.50%67% continuation · n=6Median MFE +0.79% · MAE -0.29%
Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 4 completed episodes across 41 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support49 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes4Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions41Completed session observations, not trades
2026-07-07 → 2026-08-2030 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-06-24 → 2026-07-026 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-06-15 → 2026-06-173 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-06-01 → 2026-06-022 active sessions25% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
UBSI29.3% · 4 episodes
HWC26.8% · 2 episodes
WSFS22% · 3 episodes
RNST19.5% · 3 episodes
BBT17.1% · 2 episodes
WAFD17.1% · 2 episodes
BANF14.6% · 1 episode
CATY14.6% · 1 episode
FBK14.6% · 2 episodes
FBNC14.6% · 3 episodes
FFIN14.6% · 3 episodes
INDB14.6% · 2 episodes
BOH12.2% · 1 episode
FULT12.2% · 3 episodes
UCB12.2% · 2 episodes
ABCB9.8% · 2 episodes
IBOC9.8% · 1 episode
CBU7.3% · 1 episode
PFS7.3% · 2 episodes
TFSL7.3% · 1 episode
TRMK4.9% · 1 episode
CVBF2.4% · 1 episode