Themes / Group
Inactive · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Oct 7 · 18:22 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Regional Banks

THE TRADER READBroad price confirmation, weak flow alignment

8 of 8 measured members are falling. Capital-flow agreement is 23%, so the basket is not yet clean.

Price breadth8 of 8 fallingRelative median unavailable
Capital-flow alignment23%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowCalmActivity score 17/100 · lift 0.8×
Evidence depth2 episodesLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

0 timed events
TIMING READA causal timing read is unavailable because no material member price onset could be timestamped.

No session event has enough timestamp precision to place on the clock.

2 earlier filing context receipts

WED, AUG 5BKU filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

THU, AUG 6EBC filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
Price sequence unavailableA timestamped price sequence is unavailable.
RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

Session-normalized

Observed intraday paths are not available for this group yet.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

8/8 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across EBC, FCF, FLG, IBCP, PFS.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

“The increase was driven by a $4.8 million increase in interest income and a $2.0 million decrease in interest expense.”

BKU 10-Q · 2026-08-06
credit / rates

“March 31, 2025 was primarily due to an increase in our total borrowings due to FHLB advances assumed in connection with our merger with HarborOne.”

EBC 10-Q · 2026-05-08
demand / volume

“51 The following graph presents trends in the deposit mix and cost of deposits (in millions): Quarterly average cost of deposits 2.12% 2.18% Non-interest bearing as a % of total deposits 30.5% 28.8% Spot average APY of total deposits 2.09% 2.10% Non-interest bearing demand deposits declined by 2%, or $166 million during the quarter ended March 31, 2026, primarily due to seasonality.”

BKU 10-Q · 2026-05-07
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

3 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

OCFCMoving with group

PFS · text peer

ONBMoving with group

BKU · text peer

ASBMoving with group

FLG · text peer

CNOBNot confirming

FLG · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
BKUFCFPFSNWBIIBCPFLGPEBOEBC

5/8 active0 rising · 8 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
BKUBankUnited, Inc.
Most unusual · 100/100
-1.5%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 75% of observed group sessions
FCFFirst Commonwealth Financial Corporation
Elevated · 81/100
-1.0%
Flow divergenceActive in 75% of observed group sessions
PFSProvident Financial Services, Inc.
Elevated · 75/100
-1.4%
Flow confirmerActive in 75% of observed group sessions
NWBINorthwest Bancshares, Inc.
Elevated · 73/100
-1.4%
Flow confirmerActive in 100% of observed group sessions
IBCPIndependent Bank Corporation
Elevated · 72/100
-1.0%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 25% of observed group sessions
FLGFlagstar Bank, National Association
Elevated · 63/100
-2.3%
Flow divergenceActive in 0% of observed group sessions
PEBOPeoples Bancorp Inc.
Quiet · 49/100
-1.7%
Watch / laggardActive in 50% of observed group sessions
EBCEastern Bankshares, Inc.
Quiet · 39/100
-1.6%
Watch / laggardActive in 25% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
BKUBankUnited, Inc.Most unusual-1.5%75% of 4 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
FCFFirst Commonwealth Financial CorporationParticipating-1.0%75% of 4 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
PFSProvident Financial Services, Inc.Participating-1.4%75% of 4 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
NWBINorthwest Bancshares, Inc.Participating-1.4%100% of 4 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
IBCPIndependent Bank CorporationParticipating-1.0%25% of 4 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
FLGFlagstar Bank, National AssociationParticipating-2.3%0% of 4 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
PEBOPeoples Bancorp Inc.Quiet / lagging-1.7%50% of 4 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
EBCEastern Bankshares, Inc.Quiet / lagging-1.6%25% of 4 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Live outcome ledger collecting

0/0 events completed

No completed point-in-time outcome is available yet. New live confirmations are now retained with their exact observation timestamp; statistics appear only after the corresponding candles complete.

Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 2 completed episodes across 4 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support20 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes2Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions4Completed session observations, not trades
2026-10-011 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-09-18 → 2026-09-223 active sessions25% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
NWBI100% · 2 episodes
BKU75% · 2 episodes
FCF75% · 1 episode
PFS75% · 2 episodes
PEBO50% · 2 episodes
EBC25% · 1 episode
IBCP25% · 1 episode
FLG0% · 0 episodes