Themes / Group
Inactive · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Oct 7 · 18:22 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Diversified Financials

THE TRADER READBroad relative move, confirmed beyond the cohort—but not by flow

4 of 6 measured SPY-adjusted paths align to the downside across 4.5 effective names. AUB, RELY are also moving with filing-linked members. Capital-flow agreement is 13%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth6 of 6 falling-0.4% median path versus SPY
Capital-flow alignment13%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowCalmActivity score 28/100 · lift 0.8×
Evidence depth10 episodes25 observed active sessions
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

4 timed events · 09:55–15:55 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. 5-minute inferenceAXP registered the first material upside path

    +0.39% session path at the threshold · AXP

  2. 5-minute inferenceTD registered a material downside path

    -0.46% session path at the threshold · TD

  3. 5-minute inferenceBNS registered a material downside path

    -0.42% session path at the threshold · BNS

  4. 5-minute inferenceRY registered a material downside path

    -0.36% session path at the threshold · RY

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

SPY-adjusted 5m paths

Observed movement is broad across 4.5 effective names. TD represents 29.2% of absolute path energy; 4 of 6 members align with the down relative path.

ConstructionBroad29.2% from the largest path
Effective names4.5 / 6Movement diversity after concentration
Direction breadth4/6 aligneddownside relative path · 1 counter-moving
Largest moverTD 29.2%55.3% from the top two paths
TD29.2%Dominant mover · path -1.21% · basket -0.20pp
BNS26.1%Dominant mover · path -1.08% · basket -0.18pp
AXP21.2%Counter-move · path +0.88% · basket +0.15pp
RY13.5%Aligned contributor · path -0.56% · basket -0.09pp
CM7.9%Aligned contributor · path -0.33% · basket -0.06pp
BMO2.0%Flat / inactive path · path -0.08% · basket -0.01pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. AXP moved higher firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path +0.39%
  2. TD registered a material lower path50m after the first price move · path -0.46%
  3. BNS registered a material lower path220m after the first price move · path -0.42%
  4. RY registered a material lower path230m after the first price move · path -0.36%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

SPY-adjusted
Oct 7 · 09:55 ETMove visible 10:25 ETOct 7 · 15:55 ET
Group median -0.44%Strongest relative path AXPWeakest relative path TD

Observed member paths adjusted against SPY. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

No high-confidence shared filing driver is available. The market relationship is observed, but the cause remains unexplained.

CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

2 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

AUBMoving with group

AXP · text peer

RELYMoving with group

AXP · text peer

CFGNot confirming

AXP · text peer

AONNot confirming

AXP · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
BMOAXPBNSTDRYCM

5/6 active0 rising · 6 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
BMOBank of Montreal
Most unusual · 100/100
-2.7%
Flow divergenceActive in 84% of observed group sessions
AXPAmerican Express Company
Elevated · 38/100
-0.1%
Counter-move / dispersionActive in 4% of observed group sessions
BNSThe Bank of Nova Scotia
Elevated · 37/100
-3.4%
Dominant path moverActive in 60% of observed group sessions
TDThe Toronto-Dominion Bank
Elevated · 36/100
-3.6%
Dominant path moverActive in 80% of observed group sessions
RYRoyal Bank of Canada
Elevated · 25/100
-2.6%
Aligned price + flowActive in 36% of observed group sessions
CMCanadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
Quiet · 18/100
-2.9%
Watch / laggardActive in 68% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
BMOBank of MontrealMost unusual-2.7%84% of 25 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
AXPAmerican Express CompanyParticipating-0.1%4% of 25 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
BNSThe Bank of Nova ScotiaParticipating-3.4%60% of 25 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
TDThe Toronto-Dominion BankParticipating-3.6%80% of 25 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
RYRoyal Bank of CanadaParticipating-2.6%36% of 25 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
CMCanadian Imperial Bank of CommerceQuiet / lagging-2.9%68% of 25 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Early observed follow-through

4/4 events completed
30 minutes+0.51%100% continuation · n=4Median MFE +1.50% · MAE -0.01%
60 minutes+0.85%100% continuation · n=4Median MFE +1.50% · MAE -0.01%
Session close+1.03%100% continuation · n=3Median MFE +1.62% · MAE 0.07%
Next-session close+1.07%75% continuation · n=4Median MFE +1.50% · MAE -0.01%
Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
moderate structural support

10 completed episodes across 25 active sessions provide moderate historical support. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support68 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes10Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions25Completed session observations, not trades
2026-09-221 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-08-241 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-08-181 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-08-121 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-07-27 → 2026-08-076 active sessions60% composition consistency through the episode
2026-07-17 → 2026-07-202 active sessions100% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
BMO84% · 9 episodes
TD80% · 8 episodes
CM68% · 9 episodes
BNS60% · 8 episodes
RY36% · 3 episodes
AXP4% · 1 episode